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Lean Hog Futures Warn of a Market Prime, However Can Burgers and BLTs Save the Day?

by Hifinis
July 2, 2025
in Business
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Lean Hog Futures Warn of a Market Prime, However Can Burgers and BLTs Save the Day?
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Pork bacon on a cutting board by Olesia Shadrina via iStock
Pork bacon on a reducing board by Olesia Shadrina by way of iStock

August lean hog futures (HEQ25) noticed a profit-taking setback late final week after hitting a contract excessive of $113.375 a hundredweight on June 17. The hog market bulls have pale, technically, as a worth uptrend on the day by day bar chart has not less than quickly been negated with Friday’s push to a brand new three-week low. That’s one chart clue {that a} market high is in place.

www.barchart.com
www.barchart.com

A part of late final week’s promoting strain was on account of a bearish USDA quarterly hogs and pigs report printed Thursday. The U.S. stock of all hogs and pigs on June 1 was a larger-than-expected 75.1 million head. This was up barely from June 1, 2024, and up 1% from March 1, 2025. Breeding stock, at 5.98 million head, was down barely from final 12 months, and down barely from the earlier quarter. Market hog stock, at 69.2 million head, was up barely from final 12 months, and up 1% from final quarter.

A graph showing the price of pig

AI-generated content may be incorrect.
www.usda.gov

Pork cutout worth (KMZ25) and the CME Lean Hog Index are presently at their highest ranges in nearly three years, regardless of the comparatively bigger U.S. hog herd. That implies sturdy shopper demand for pork on the meat counter. With beef costs at traditionally elevated ranges and with shopper confidence declining, it’s probably that we’ll see higher shopper substitution demand for the less-expensive pork cuts over the pricier beef cuts.

The newest CME Lean Hog Index is up one other 48 cents to $111.89 as of June 25. The preliminary calculation places the index up one other 13 cents to $112.02 for Monday. Pork cutout worth on Friday did decline by $2.19, to $117.46, however motion was strong at 333.46 masses. U.S. pork manufacturing is nearing a seasonal low. That has helped carry pork cutout worth and money hog costs as packers bid up for the smaller provides.

One worrisome ingredient for the hog and contemporary pork markets is that out of doors grilling season demand is presently peaking and can taper off after the Fourth of July vacation. Additionally, money cattle costs seem to have topped out after a string of weekly report excessive common costs, which was halted in late June. Declining money cattle (LEY00) and stay cattle futures (LEQ25) costs within the close to time period would even be a bearish weight on the money and lean hog futures markets.

www.barchart.com
www.barchart.com

Beginning in early July and lasting for a number of weeks is the bacon, lettuce and tomato (BLT) season, as home-grown tomatoes get ripe and plump, luring shoppers to slap some bacon on the range for some BLTs. Contemporary bellies have been the first driver of elevated pork cutout values as grocers have stepped up purchases in preparation for BLT-season demand.

S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq ($NASX) inventory index futures hit report highs final week as dealer and investor danger urge for food surprisingly sprang again to life after the ceasefire settlement between Israel and Iran, which considerably de-escalated Center East tensions.

If danger urge for food within the market stays strong, the speculative commodity market bulls can be extra aggressive on the lengthy sides of the futures markets, together with lean hogs. The speculators are the grease for the skids of up-trending bull markets in commodities. Conversely, a fast return of keener danger aversion within the common market may mark the top of the newest bull market in lean hog futures.

www.barchart.com
www.barchart.com

On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff didn’t have (both straight or not directly) positions in any of the securities talked about on this article. All info and information on this article is solely for informational functions. This text was initially printed on Barchart.com

Tags: BLTsBurgersDayfuturesHogLeanMarketsaveTopwarn
Hifinis

Hifinis

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