August lean hog futures (HEQ25) noticed a profit-taking setback late final week after hitting a contract excessive of $113.375 a hundredweight on June 17. The hog market bulls have pale, technically, as a worth uptrend on the day by day bar chart has not less than quickly been negated with Friday’s push to a brand new three-week low. That’s one chart clue {that a} market high is in place.
A part of late final week’s promoting strain was on account of a bearish USDA quarterly hogs and pigs report printed Thursday. The U.S. stock of all hogs and pigs on June 1 was a larger-than-expected 75.1 million head. This was up barely from June 1, 2024, and up 1% from March 1, 2025. Breeding stock, at 5.98 million head, was down barely from final 12 months, and down barely from the earlier quarter. Market hog stock, at 69.2 million head, was up barely from final 12 months, and up 1% from final quarter.
Pork cutout worth (KMZ25) and the CME Lean Hog Index are presently at their highest ranges in nearly three years, regardless of the comparatively bigger U.S. hog herd. That implies sturdy shopper demand for pork on the meat counter. With beef costs at traditionally elevated ranges and with shopper confidence declining, it’s probably that we’ll see higher shopper substitution demand for the less-expensive pork cuts over the pricier beef cuts.
The newest CME Lean Hog Index is up one other 48 cents to $111.89 as of June 25. The preliminary calculation places the index up one other 13 cents to $112.02 for Monday. Pork cutout worth on Friday did decline by $2.19, to $117.46, however motion was strong at 333.46 masses. U.S. pork manufacturing is nearing a seasonal low. That has helped carry pork cutout worth and money hog costs as packers bid up for the smaller provides.
One worrisome ingredient for the hog and contemporary pork markets is that out of doors grilling season demand is presently peaking and can taper off after the Fourth of July vacation. Additionally, money cattle costs seem to have topped out after a string of weekly report excessive common costs, which was halted in late June. Declining money cattle (LEY00) and stay cattle futures (LEQ25) costs within the close to time period would even be a bearish weight on the money and lean hog futures markets.