We’ve had greater than every week to whet our appetites, however ultimately, the 2025 AFL finals collection is upon us!
And in probably the most even season in lots of a 12 months, considered one of Adelaide, Geelong, Brisbane, Collingwood, GWS, Fremantle, Gold Coast or Hawthorn can be strolling away with the premiership cup.
We’re no nearer now to figuring out who that can be than we have been at first of the season six months in the past; and because it stands, each group has some critical points to resolve, inquiries to reply and conundrums to contemplate forward of a bumper opening weekend of the finals.
Forward of 4 bona fide blockbusters to begin September, three of which loom as real line-ball contests, a 12 months through which the record of contenders has by no means been longer appears set for the grandest of finales.
Listed here are 5 burning questions forward of the semi finals.
Is eighth higher than first proper now?
Below the outdated last eight system from the Nineteen Nineties, the primary week of finals had first on the ladder play eighth. It was nearer than you suppose – in six years, three video games have been determined by 13 factors or much less, with just one correct massacre.
However for the reason that new system was carried out in 2000, simply twice in 25 seasons prior to now have the planets aligned for the minor premiers to face the eighth-seed in a semi last – Port Adelaide and Essendon in 2003, and West Coast and the Western Bulldogs in 2006. Each encounters noticed the underdogs soundly overwhelmed.
Historical past is most positively on Adelaide’s facet going into Friday evening’s blockbuster. Not for 42 years below any finals system has a ladder-leader bowed out in straight units. The Crows’ sensible home-and-away kind earned them the precise to 2 dwelling finals and the double probability, and offers them the right alternative to make amends for failing to adapt to the warmth of September towards Collingwood final week.
It’s straightforward to get caught up within the momentum of elimination last winners and really feel doubtful concerning the probabilities of qualifying last losers, particularly now that the pre-finals bye has made the finals kookier than ever on the subject of upsets. A season like this through which the eighth-placed Hawthorn gained a formidable 15 video games and will have completed prime 4 had they not narrowly misplaced to Brisbane within the last spherical simply complicates issues additional.
However it could be foolish to write down the Crows off. Their kind on the finish of the home-and-away season was excellent, they usually entered September as a worthy prime seed, if not flag favourites. They’ve now had a style of September, one that ought to maintain them in good stead as they put together to face the identical problem over again.
Jordan Dawson put in a stinker towards the Magpies. Riley Thilthorpe too botched key moments all through the evening. It’s uncertain the Hawks can depend on both All-Australian being so down two weeks in a row.
This time final 12 months, the brown and gold military headed to Adelaide as veritable favourites in a do-or-die semi last towards a Port Adelaide group humiliated the week prior. However the Energy discovered one other gear, produced probably the most brutal efficiency of 2024, and lived to combat one other day.
This Crows group is a lot better than final 12 months’s Energy. They continue to be a greater facet than Hawthorn, it doesn’t matter what the primary week of the finals confirmed. They’d do properly to do not forget that.
Hawthorn have fun beating Adelaide in 2024. (Picture by Morgan Hancock/AFL Pictures/by way of Getty Pictures)
Who replaces Lachie Neale?
Dropping a twin Brownlow Medallist and membership captain for the ultimate three weeks of the finals can be a loss of life knell for almost each different group within the AFL.
For Brisbane, Lachie Neale’s calf harm is a bitter blow, however certainly not an utter calamity. They’ve the depth to cowl him – and up to date expertise in doing simply that.
With out their champion for the ultimate three weeks of the home-and-away season, the Lions upped the roles of their three different premier on-ballers in Hugh McCluggage, Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft, whereas additionally giving Zac Bailey and Cam Rayner further midfield time to compensate.
He was horrible towards Geelong within the qualifying last, however Bailey’s slashing finish to the home-and-away season is what netted him a maiden All-Australian blazer, and his velocity, poise and sophistication when pushed into the midfield is a key level of distinction for the Lions for the rest of the season.
He’s a lever Chris Fagan didn’t pull when the Lions have been hammered by Gold Coast in Spherical 20’s QClash – Bailey didn’t attend a single centre bounce, whereas Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson managed proceedings from stoppages all day lengthy. You’ll be able to just about assure he’ll be deployed across the ball on the Gabba on Saturday evening.
In some ways, Fagan and the reigning premiers face the very same check Chris Scott’s Cats handed with flying colors final week – the right way to cease an opponent that dominated in a key facet in latest home-and-away encounters.
Geelong denied Brisbane any velocity of ball motion from half-back, reducing off their most plentiful scoring supply from their final three wins over the Cats, with strain, positioning, and a single-minded deal with what they wished to attain defensively.
Fagan should discover a manner, with out his finest clearance-winner, to close down the Suns’ mighty midfield double punch, limit the affect of Jarrod Witts, a clearly superior ruckman to the trustworthy Darcy Fort, and stop the Suns taking management of a territory battle that the Lions have to win to maintain their season alive.
It’s an unlimited problem for the reigning champs. We’re about to seek out out simply how a lot fireplace within the stomach the Lions have left.
Lachie Neale will miss the remainder of the finals collection. (Picture by Chris Hyde/Getty Pictures)
Can the Suns tag McCluggage?
Mullin’s masterclass on Friday evening means taggers are again in vogue – and for Hugh McCluggage, meaning for the remainder of the finals collection, the query of whether or not to run with him can be requested.
McCluggage has dominated the Suns within the latest previous – even of their 66-point win again in Spherical 20, the Lions star had 28 disposals, seven clearances and a objective to be their clear finest. Because the Cats proved, cease him, and minimize the center of the Lions midfield – particularly with Lachie Neale on the sidelines.
It means Alex Davies may be simply as vital as Rowell and Anderson to Saturday evening’s QClash. Introduced in for his or her final conflict with the Lions particularly to maintain tabs on Neale at stoppages, Davies did his job so brilliantly – 30 disposals and ten tackles whereas protecting Neale to only three clearances – that he hasn’t left the group, or the beginning midfield, since.
An even bigger physique than Mullin, McCluggage’s elite endurance working can be robust to cease across the floor for Davies- however with sufficient assist from teammates like what Mullin acquired within the qualifying last, there’s no purpose a tighter tag than ordinary isn’t achievable.
The query is, does Damien Hardwick go for it, or does he again his excellent midfield to beat the Lions head-to-head?
The intestine says the latter – Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw weren’t run with within the elimination last, and Anderson and Rowell gained the day there. With no Neale, the Suns most likely shade the midfield duel on paper at the least – and it’s in that battle the destiny of this match lies.
Who is available in … and out?
Neale apart, finals week 1 was mercifully gentle on main accidents for anybody – although post-weekend information of Calsher Pricey’s hamstring pressure is a blow to the Hawks. With no suspensions to fret about both, the Crows and Suns particularly can deal with choosing their finest accessible 23, nonetheless that may look.
Let’s begin with the Crows. Izak Rankine stays suspended, although with season alive if they will get better to make the grand last. However with a lot at stake, you’d need to suppose the cube can be rolled with Josh Rachele, particularly given how impotent the Crows checked out floor stage inside 50 towards Collingwood.
It has been greater than two months since Rachele suffered the knee harm towards Melbourne that appeared a season-ender for the younger goalsneak. In contrast to Josh Weddle, the Crows haven’t been capable of battle-test him in a reserves last – if picked, he’d go in chilly, with no manner of proving his match health. Might he be a sneaky substitute candidate to supply the Crows a spark within the last quarter of a tense last?
As for who goes out, Luke Pedlar’s three targets has locked him into the beginning group, leaving 4 choices: a like-for-like small ahead swap for teen Zac Taylor, ousting veteran qualifying last sub Brodie Smith, who made a key error with a blazed-away bomb late towards the Pies, reshuffling the group by eradicating Mitch Hinge, who was subbed out after an ineffectual efficiency, or radically shaking up the ahead line construction by dumping the out-of-form Darcy Fogarty. Rachele as sub for Smith can be my decide.
The Lions ought to have it easy: with their harm record all season-enders, Bruce Reville, who was stiffed to be dropped for the qualifying last within the first place, comes straight in for Neale. Sam Marshall most likely stays as sub, whereas the one different debate is whether or not Oscar McInerney ought to be recalled for Darcy Fort – unlikely, given he was overwhelmed within the ruck by Field Hill’s Ned Reeves’ within the Lions’ VFL semi last loss.
The Suns are certainly unchanged – David Swallow’s wretched kick to trigger a turnover that led to Freo’s go-ahead objective was mitigated by his ice-cool last minute set shot to win the sport, and it’s uncertain anybody else on the record gives sufficient as sub for Damien Hardwick to vary tacks now. Sam Clohesy and Will Graham are finest 22 gamers out for weeks with long-term accidents, however deciding on both can be an unlimited threat at this stage of the season.
Pricey’s harm, merciless as it’s, prevents a tough determination for Sam Mitchell, with Mitch Lewis virtually sure to return straight again in after being dropped for the elimination last. It means no four-key ahead construction for the second week working, however after it labored towards the Giants it may not have been the rung to drag anyway. Henry Hustwaite particularly was dominant in Field Hill’s VFL semi last, whereas Luke Breust gives September expertise, and Harry Morrison may be accessible from a quad injruy, however Sam Butler can be stiff to exit after nailing a clutch final-quarter objective towards GWS. The one different candidate to be omitted is sub Changkuoth Jiath, who did some good issues after approaching and gives an injection of velocity late in video games. Lewis for Pricey ought to be the one change.
Choices, selections …
Can the winners bother the Pies and Cats?
Earlier than the arrival of the pre-finals bye, September past week one was nearly a foregone conclusion.
Between 2000 and 2015, simply 5 qualifying last losers of 32 went out in straight units – three of them throughout 2014 and 2015, because it occurs – whereas of 32 preliminary finals, solely 4 have been gained by groups who took the scenic route there.
Issues are completely different now – whether or not it’s the week off that has triggered it or simply finals getting weirder and extra even over time is up for debate, however in eight years of the pre-finals bye (excluding 2021, when there wasn’t one), six of 16 qualifying last losers have been bundled out within the semis, whereas seven qualifying last winners have been dusted within the prelims. Wacky occasions certainly.
That’s why, on paper at the least, the 2 winners out of this weekend can head into dates with Geelong and Collingwood filled with confidence that they will upset the 2 clear premiership frontrunners.
However it’s nonetheless onerous to shake the sensation, so complete and sensible have been the Cats and Pies’ qualifying last wins for vastly completely different causes, that it’s going to be harder this 12 months than ever earlier than to topple out our clear prime two seeds. With Brisbane coping with accidents galore, Adelaide wanting susceptible below the September warmth, and Gold Coast and Hawthorn now going through brutally robust finals on the street earlier than they will even take into consideration what’s subsequent, there are good the explanation why not one of the semi finalists appear able to doing what the Lions did final 12 months or the Western Bulldogs in 2016, and profitable all of it from the decrease rungs of the eight.
In reality, right here’s a tip certain to explode in my face – I solely give considered one of these 4 an opportunity of profitable a prelim: the Hawks.
Both the Lions or Suns would want to take care of 90,000 fever-pitch Collingwood supporters on the MCG to win by way of to a grand last. For the latter, it could be almost double the most important crowd they’ve ever performed in entrance of; whereas the Lions have a a lot weaker group, and the Pies clearly stronger, than their season-shaping overcome them late within the home-and-away season. With the semi last set to be tremendously hard-fought, I’m sceptical both could have sufficient left within the tank.
Adelaide, too, would want to attain one thing they’ve struggled with even throughout their run to the minor premiership, and beat a contender on the street. With out Izak Rankine, towards a Cats group that conquered them on the Adelaide Oval in Collect Spherical, who they’ve only one win towards since 2018, it’s certainly an excessive amount of to beat.
The Hawks, although, are the one group of the 4 for whom victory would arrange a ‘dwelling’ preliminary last. You’ll be able to guess they’d have extra followers within the stands than the Cats in a rematch of the 2008 massive dance – and numerous different classics since then – and one thing tells me that slightly than sap their power, a well-known win over the Crows on the street would encourage a gaggle made for the large stage to even larger heights, similar to the Bulldogs again in 2016.
The Hawks have the velocity to nullify the Cats’ blistering run, the defence to fight Jeremy Cameron and co. much better than the Lions managed final Friday evening, and for all of the query marks on their midfield, Jai Newcombe has been the very best man afield in all three of the finals he’s performed in. Pretty much as good as Oisin Mullin was to nullify Hugh McCluggage within the qualifying last, the Hawk’s uncooked energy presents one other problem altogether.
And right here’s the clincher – each single Cats supporter, if not the gamers and coaches, would dread going through the Hawks within the penultimate spherical greater than some other group.
The peculiarity is the Hawks are most likely the unlikeliest semi-finalist to win this weekend. But when they do … oh boy.
