On paper at the least, Spherical 22 is one other damp squib of a weekend of footy.
Of 9 video games, just one options two prime eight groups going face to face – Hawthorn and Collingwood on Thursday night time, in a uncommon blockbuster within the prime time slot that little question this yr’s Thursday curse will flip right into a one-sided fizzer.
However for everybody else, although, this week has a deeper that means: it’s ‘Don’t Stuff Up Spherical’.
Not one of the contenders, be they preventing for the highest 4 or simply making an attempt to lock in a spot within the eight, can afford to drop 4 premiership factors this spherical; and in contrast to some weeks within the latter levels of 2025, it looks like that is the spherical when an upset can happen.
Will Gold Coast get a shock in opposition to a Carlton staff with nothing to play for however pleasure? Can Sydney take a serious scalp and provides Brisbane one other shock loss on the Gabba? Will the Western Bulldogs’ push for September get stopped in its tracks by Melbourne within the week the Demons farewelled Simon Goodwin?
Strap yourselves in: we is likely to be seeing a boilover to shake up the race for the eight!
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Tim Miller
Collingwood, Geelong, St Kilda, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Fremantle, GWS, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide
It’s a typical phenomenon within the AFL world: the ‘useless coach bounce’. That’s, when a staff, with a brand new face on the helm after the coach has been summarily booted mid-season, rises as one to both honour the outdated boss or impress the brand new with a backs-to-the-wall triumph.
Of the ten mid-year axings for the reason that begin of 2019, six have seen the caretaker coach win their first recreation in cost – seven in case you think about that Brad Scott at North Melbourne and Nathan Buckley at Collingwood received farewell video games. That’s a reasonably robust report for groups going so poorly the coach paid together with his job – and it’s precisely why I’m going into the Western Bulldogs’ conflict with a post-Simon Goodwin Melbourne this week in a state of dread.
It’s not robust sufficient to really feel the necessity to reverse-mozz the Canine by tipping in opposition to them, as I did final week in opposition to GWS (efficiently) … but when you could tip an upset this weekend, right here’s your finest wager.
The remainder of the weekend has the potential to be fascinating however probably received’t be. Actually, Geelong will maul Essendon in a maudlin Friday night time match that leaves us all praying Thursday at the least shall be watchable; whereas on Sunday, on both facet of that Dees-Canine conflict, count on to see GWS try to atone for final week’s horror loss by pummelling North Melbourne, whereas Adelaide ought to principally simply have to point out up in opposition to West Coast in Perth to retain their grip on prime spot.
A trio of Saturday video games are extra fascinating; it’d be foolhardy to select in opposition to any of Brisbane, Gold Coast and Fremantle in opposition to Sydney, Carlton and Port Adelaide respectively, however a mixture of the Lions’ strange season on the Gabba and the Suns and Dockers needing to journey – plus the Energy’s tendency to randomly stand up for Ken Hinkley at surprising instances – carries simply sufficient intrigue to be price tuning in for the primary quarter simply to see if any of the three also-rans are up for the battle.
Sport of the day may really be its first, with Richmond and St Kilda taking part in the spherical’s solely true useless rubber – this was the sport I predicted pre-season could be the Tigers’ solely win for the yr. I’ve been proved terribly unsuitable on that rating, and now that it has come round I’m not even sticking to that prediction. Saints for me.
Lastly, the one true blockbuster that kicks off the spherical appears to be like set to be, we pray, a magnificence. A Hawthorn staff in nice type however with damage issues and clinging to their place within the eight, in opposition to a Collingwood staff only a recreation forward however struggling a stoop that might price them prime 4.
The Hawks are on this one as much as their ears, however with Billy Frampton and Jeremy Howe again in to bolster the defence, and the very fact I’m nonetheless holding out on the Pies being a serious premiership contender – and, in fact, the very fact the Bulldogs actually, really want this consequence to go theri method – I’m backing within the black and white.
(Photograph by Quinn Rooney/Getty Photos)
Dem Panopoulos
Collingwood, Geelong, St Kilda, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Fremantle, GWS, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide
Pointy finish, right here we’re.
This looks like one other underwhelming spherical, however for the primary time in perpetually, it would really peak with a superb Thursday recreation. The lack of Will Day is catastrophic for Hawthorn, who now lack their most dynamic midfielder. We all know they’ll be concentrating on a big-name mid or two within the months of spring, however that received’t assist right here.
Nobody is extra bullish on the Hawks than me – I believe they will nonetheless make a dent, but it surely’s exhausting to tip in opposition to Collingwood right here.
We don’t tip Geelong video games anymore, solely the variety of targets Jeremy Cameron will kick. I say 8 in opposition to the hapless Essendon.
It’s an fascinating recreation on the MCG early on Saturday: is it unsuitable to assume the Tigers might beat St Kilda? I’ve been purposefully not tipping all of them yr, however the pleasure on this staff has been superior to observe. I’ll nonetheless refuse to tip them, to have an egg in each baskets.
Later, the Lions ought to beat the Swans, and the Suns must be too good for Carlton regardless of the Marvel Stadium/Damien Hardwick rivalry typically reigning supreme. Equally, Port Adelaide will battle exhausting this time round however Fremantle have to simply preserve being skilled. I’m glad folks have opened their eyes to how good they’re.
Sunday is boring too, though that Demons/Canine recreation has a little bit of juice to it. Melbourne are lacking a unprecedented variety of senior off-field leaders, however the sacking of a coach typically has a rebounding impact. It’s laughable in the event that they or any followers assume Simon Goodwin was the one downside although – the Bulldogs by a lot to maintain their unlikely march to September alive.
Nick Watson celebrates a aim. (Photograph by Darrian Traynor/Getty Photos)
Liam Salter
Hawthorn, Geelong, St Kilda, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Fremantle, GWS, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide
I do know we’re all very, very excited for finals – and the race for the eight is ridiculously shut – however this weekend simply feels a bit, dare I say it, ‘meh’. And it ain’t like we’re saving the very best for final.
Certainly, Spherical 22’s most fascinating contest kicks us off, and it’s additionally the one recreation the place each groups have one thing to lose by way of finals. All of a sudden susceptible to falling out of the eight, the Hawks’ activity will get zero % simpler in opposition to a Pies facet who aren’t flying themselves.
Like Tim, I’m not fairly subscribing to the real pessimism surrounding Collingwood, however whereas I could have backed them a month in the past, the Hawks will sense their vulnerability. Hawthorn for me.
Sadly for Friday night time footy lovers, this one is one other fizzer – however at the least we’ll in all probability have the ability to watch Jeremy Cameron kick the next rating than a lacklustre Essendon squad.
I’m backing the favourites all day Saturday, regardless of all 4 video games having considerably of an upset risk. The Saints acquired dangerously near dropping the undroppable final week, however shall be up and about after two wins and will acquire a 3rd in a row over the Tigers.
Neither Queensland facet must be troubled of their respective matches, however the Lions face a trickier activity in opposition to a Swans facet with nothing to lose. Then, regardless of a doubtful report for each Freo (at Adelaide Oval) and me (seeing Freo wins stay), the Dockers ought to do sufficient to see off a tenacious Port Adelaide driving excessive on emotion.
Getting into Sunday, the upset winner I’ve flirted with probably the most, however opted in opposition to, are the Dees. As a lot because the ‘sacked coach’ phenomenon might play an element (and I don’t doubt Doggies followers could also be only a little nervous), the Bulldogs are a essentially higher facet than the hapless Melbourne , and have a lot, a lot extra at stake.
Sunday’s different two video games are far much less fascinating. I count on GWS to let off their frustration and win huge in opposition to the Roos, whereas Adelaide will win by a lot in opposition to the Eagles.
| Spherical 22 | Tim | Dem | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAW vs COL | COL | COL | HAW | ? |
| GEE vs ESS | GEE | GEE | GEE | ? |
| RCH vs STK | STK | STK | STK | ? |
| BL vs SYD | BL | BL | BL | ? |
| CAR vs GCS | GCS | GCS | GCS | ? |
| PA vs FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE | ? |
| GWS vs NM | GWS | GWS | GWS | ? |
| MEL vs WB | WB | WB | WB | ? |
| WCE vs ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE | ? |
| LAST WEEK | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 125 | 122 | 124 | 133 |
