It might be foolish to do any evaluation of Sydney’s season, nor their eight-point loss to Essendon, with out noting the accidents which have cruelled final 12 months’s runners-up at each flip.
Seven of final 12 months’s grand remaining 23, plus Luke Parker, had been sidelined on Saturday afternoon at Marvel Stadium, together with two of their finest 5 in Errol Gulden and Tom Papley, their most well-liked key ahead pairing of Joel Amartey and Logan McDonald, and the criminally underrated Robbie Fox and Harry Cunningham in defence.
Any crew, even one adequate to be 2024’s minor premiers, would battle to deal with a casualty ward that massive.
But it surely’s one factor to be down, and fairly one other to leak six objectives in 1 / 4 to a Bombers outfit which ranks within the backside 4 for scores this 12 months.
It’s one factor to battle to interchange stars, and fairly one other to be so routinely sliced open with damaging runs from half-back by a crew not famend for both.
It’s one factor to have a decimated ahead line, and fairly one other to be so incapable of discovering a Plan B as to have 61 inside 50s in opposition to a susceptible Essendon defence for seven objectives, and quit within the first quarter essentially the most quantity of intercept marks a crew have mustered in a time period this season.
Accidents or not, and however a gallant fightback that noticed the Swans steamroll residence within the remaining quarter solely to be denied by their very own inaccuracy, there’s one thing essentially damaged about the way in which they’re doing issues.
Sorting it out, both by fixing what’s flawed or by attempting a unique tack, is the defining early problem of Dean Cox’s time on the helm.
The Swans made their push for a premiership final 12 months on the again of devastating run from half-back, stunning foot abilities and an enormous array of goalkicking choices, each up ahead and thru the midfield.
However what flew below the radar was how good they had been at holding the ball in there, denying opponents a fast rebound and an opportunity to harm them going the opposite method. The Swans had been primary within the AFL in 2024 for his or her opponents’ rebound 50 price, whereas solely Hawthorn conceded fewer factors from defensive half.
This 12 months? They’re backside six within the rebound 50 price, with the likes of Richmond, West Coast and a Melbourne crew with nearly no forwards amongst these faring worse; whereas they’re now merely eighth-best at conceding factors from defensive half.
A part of this power in 2024 was the defensive strain of the likes of Papley, and a part of it was a fearsome skill to attain themselves every time in attacking positions – the Swans ranked second for objectives per inside 50 and for scoring pictures per inside 50, at 26.2 and 47.8 per cent respectively.
Basically, they scored as soon as each two inside 50s – a superb strike price even earlier than you bear in mind that solely Richmond and Gold Coast fared worse for common marks per inside 50.
However that was high quality, as a result of the Swans’ main power was quick ball motion from attacking midfielders able to hitting the scoreboard, A.Ok.A. Chad Warner, Isaac Heeney and Gulden.
This wasn’t a aspect that wanted massive marking forwards to do the majority of the scoring – of the six Swans to kick 30 objectives or extra final 12 months, Amartey and McDonald are the one standard talls.
The issues, actually, come at floor degree, the place the Swans nonetheless have the majority of their finest obtainable squad – although admittedly Papley has proved irreplaceable.
Even with out him, although, a drop from being final 12 months’s finest crew at scoring from ahead half, averaging 47.4 factors per match, to being fifth-worst this 12 months with 36, is dismal.
Neither Heeney nor Warner have hit the heights of final season, which has grow to be a serious drawback.
From a pure objectives sense, they’re averaging a couple of purpose per sport apiece – excellent for regular midfielders, however down from 1.42 and 1.4 per sport final 12 months respectively.
However their complete scoreboard impression is effectively down: from sitting third and equal fifth respectively for common rating involvements per sport final 12 months, they now sit 58th and equal twelfth. Heeney particularly has had a staggering fall again into the grounds of mere mortals.
Warner’s key drop, although, is within the high quality of his entries: his hunch for rating involvements comes regardless of averaging 1.5 extra inside 50s per sport. The Swans are getting extra appears to be like from him, however much less reward.
These slumps make the lack of Gulden, the perfect of the trio at delivering inside 50, much more profound: however Heeney and Warner in final 12 months’s kind would have gone additional to mitigating his absence.
The Swans are, barely, forward on common inside 50s in comparison with 2024; but whereas final 12 months, they had been far and away the competitors’s highest-scoring crew, this 12 months they’re down alongside North Melbourne and Fremantle within the backside eight.
Chad Warner and Will Hayward argue. (Picture by James Wiltshire/AFL Photographs by way of Getty Photographs)
All of that is to say: the Swans’ forwards are getting as a lot of a glance in as final 12 months, but by means of each the absence of Amartey and McDonald and an incapability to search out one other method residence, they’re 17 factors per sport worse off.
Notably as effectively, they had been the perfect crew within the enterprise at conceding scores from the opposition’s defensive 50; now, it’s tenth-best.
And but, this 12 months they’re behind solely Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs for the quantity of instances groups can get it from defensive 50 to ahead 50 in opposition to them, with a price of 19.9 per cent: that’s really higher than final 12 months, after they had been second-best within the competitors (the Bulldogs higher once more), with a price of 20.3 per cent.
As for the scores they’re conceding, they’re seven factors a sport on common worse than final 12 months, regardless of really giving up fewer marks inside 50. Once more, it’s not an aerial challenge, which implies McCartin’s common absences and even not having the likes of Lewis Melican down there in opposition to the Bombers wasn’t the first drawback.
It’s the identical because the ahead line challenge, basically: the Swans are very related in quantity to how they performed final 12 months, however considerably worse in output.
Up till Saturday, I used to be ready to provide the good thing about the doubt that, primarily, it was the personnel in assault inflicting the drop-off, and the frequent absences of Tom McCartin to shore up the defence – however for all Francis, Hamling and (an infinitely higher choice) Hayden McLean’s limitations, they had been removed from those accountable for Sydney’s profligacy in opposition to the Bombers; whereas McCartin was certainly down again, for all the great it did.
Time and time once more, the Swans bombed aimlessly, missed main targets, or did each, with Zach Reid and Ben McKay feasting aerially. By quarter time, the Dons had 11 intercept marks, with six of them hauled down by that duo.
Then, when the Bombers had their probabilities, they swarmed – a first-half ahead 50 strain issue of 264 (good grief!) noticed the Swans cough the ball up repeatedly, quit appears to be like at purpose, and get punished with correct kicking.
Issue into that the ailing self-discipline that noticed Sydney quit all three Essendon objectives by way of 50m penalties, two of them for encroaching on the mark, and I’m astonished Dean Cox had any hair left at quarter time.
The issues are greater than simply going ahead, although: the Swans, up till three quarter time when the match was all however shot, fared dismally within the strain stakes – their strain issue of 152 as much as quarter time was their worst in a single time period all 12 months.
Essentially the most damning purpose conceded by the dearth of strain on the ball-carrier was undoubtedly this one – the Bombers virtually plead to have a handball turned over, or a deal with laid, for the Swans to go the opposite method, however no Sydney participant even lays a hand on a crimson and black jumper, and it ends with Archie Perkins capturing from 40 metres below no duress by any means.
The Swans of final 12 months had been by no means a vastly high-disposal crew, however they had been in management sufficient in most video games to remain forward of the rely: notably, they went 11-3 at successful the disposal tally up till Spherical 15 final 12 months, after they had been 13-1 and miles forward of everybody else within the competitors.
They went 5-7 from there, together with -80 within the grand remaining, and at the moment are 4-5 to start out 2025, with the Bombers’ sheer domination of the disposal rely merely essentially the most evident of a rising development.
The Bombers completed with 96 extra disposals, nevertheless it was +98 at three quarter time.
No, it didn’t translate to territory domination – principally, it was simply the Bombers chipping the ball round their defensive half, refusing to provide the ball away and not using a struggle. They racked up the marks, managed the ball, and completed with simply 45 inside 50s to 61 – although it was 18-35 after half time, when the Swans had been a mile down and chasing a sport the Dons simply appeared comfortable to attempt to kill as boringly as attainable.
There’s a desperation issue to all of this: 10 Swans didn’t lay a deal with within the first half, and to be down in that rely 32-19 at half time given how a lot ball the Bombers had is damning.
That is the place Sydney discover themselves: a shell of the crew that reached the grand remaining final 12 months, by no means thoughts the utter power of nature they had been right now 12 months in the past.
Defensively, they invite strain, whereas failing to placed on sufficient themselves; they’re chaotic and finest and impotent at worst when going inside 50 to a ahead group that wants all the assistance it could actually get; the celebrities remaining on the park are all down.
Essendon should not a crew that ought to have been capable of check any of those weaknesses; that they did, and so spectacularly with that six-goal remaining quarter, is the surest signal but that one thing has to provide.
And but you couldn’t have a look at the way in which they performed within the remaining quarter, when, with hope nearly misplaced, they marched residence with three objectives to have solely their very own inaccuracy value them victory, and suppose for a second that this crew is cooked.
The run and carry down the center was again with a vengeance, scrambling the Bombers and leaving their backline ailing set as much as intercept. The marks inside 50 nonetheless didn’t come, however at floor degree, there have been threats all over the place.
Will Hayward eventually got here into his personal; Angus Sheldrick confirmed greater than sufficient to recommend he’s a best-22 footballer and never a sub; Justin McInerney was electrical, Nick Blakey totally unstoppable till being compelled off by a HIA from Zach Merrett’s errant arm.
The Swans’ easiest stays deadly, it doesn’t matter what personnel they’ve obtainable. It’s adequate to return inside a couple of moments – Blakey being off, a dodgy harmful deal with free paid in opposition to Hamling, any variety of gettable misses in a second half they dominated – of successful a sport they trailed by 39 at half time.
The cavalry will all return, and the Swans will undoubtedly be higher for it after they do.
However the season would possibly already be shot by then; lest he desires to face the ignominy of letting a grand remaining successful crew miss the eight in his first season in cost, Cox should discover a technique to maintain the fort for now.
As a result of taking part in the identical method they did final 12 months for lesser outcomes simply isn’t going to chop it with the instruments he’s bought.
