PORTLAND, USA, Might 21 (IPS) – Many international locations around the globe have a fertility fee beneath the substitute stage of two.1 births per lady, however one nation stands out with its exceptionally low fertility fee.
So, which nation at present has the bottom fertility fee on the planet? Is that nation
- Singapore
- South Korea
- Spain
- Sweden
- Switzerland?
Some extra demographic info could also be useful. This nation’s fertility fee, which has been beneath the substitute stage for forty years, declined to roughly one-third the substitute stage in 2023, or 0.72 births per lady. The fertility fee in 2023 was a fraction of ranges about fifty and seventy years in the past, which had been 3.8 and 6.2 births per lady, respectively (Determine 1).
The fertility fee of this nation is predicted to stay lower than half the substitute stage for the following thirty years and keep properly beneath the substitute stage for the remainder of the twenty first century.
The nation has carried out numerous measures to handle its low fertility fee, together with childcare subsidies, tax reductions, childcare companies, money funds to folks, and prolonged maternity and paternity depart.
The nation’s president declared inhabitants decline a nationwide emergency and established a committee to arrange a plan to handle its low fertility fee, inhabitants decline, and demographic ageing. A brand new Ministry of Inhabitants Technique Planning has additionally been established to handle these points.
The reply to the query of which nation at present has the bottom fertility fee on the planet is the Republic of Korea, generally known as South Korea.
Due to its excessive fertility fee within the current previous, the inhabitants of South Korea grew comparatively quickly over the previous 75 years. From a inhabitants of almost 20 million in 1950, the inhabitants of South Korea reached roughly 36 million by 1975 and about 52 million in 2025.
The previous speedy development of South Korea’s inhabitants is over and is being changed by a speedy decline of its inhabitants.
By the tip of the twenty first century, the inhabitants of South Korea is predicted to be roughly the identical dimension because it was in 1950, round 22 million.
Inhabitants projections for South Korea persistently present a declining inhabitants over the approaching 75 years. The varied variants of United Nations inhabitants projections, for instance, all present a quickly declining inhabitants for South Korea over the approaching many years.
The United Nations medium variant inhabitants projection expects South Korea’s present inhabitants of about 52 million to say no to roughly 22 million by the 12 months 2100.
The UN’s excessive and low variants additionally venture South Korea’s present inhabitants to be smaller in 2100 at roughly 32 and 14 million, respectively. The fixed variant, which assumes the nation’s fertility fee will stay fixed at its present stage, tasks South Korea’s inhabitants to be 17 million by the century’s shut (Determine 2).
In addition to inhabitants decline, South Korea can be anticipated to expertise speedy demographic ageing. South Korea’s younger inhabitants of the current previous has been changed by an older inhabitants that’s anticipated to be even older within the coming years.
In 1950, the median age of South Korea’s inhabitants was about 18 years, and the proportion of the inhabitants 65 years or older was about 3%. The nation’s present median age is 46 years, and about 20% of the inhabitants is 65 years and older.
South Korea’s median age is predicted to proceed growing, reaching 57 years in 2050 and 60 years by the shut of the century. Additionally, the proportion of the inhabitants aged 65 years or older is projected to achieve 40 % in 2050 and 45 % by 2100 (Desk 1).
Why do the inhabitants projections present a declining inhabitants for South Korea over the approaching many years?
The reply to that query is comparatively simple. South Korea is solely experiencing fewer births than deaths. In 2023, for instance, the numbers of births and deaths had been roughly 236 thousand and 346 thousand, respectively, yielding a pure change (births minus deaths) of -109 thousand.
The rationale births outnumber deaths in South Korea is that the nation’s fertility fee is properly beneath the substitute stage.
And why is South Korea’s fertility fee thus far beneath the substitute stage?
The reply to that important query is extra speculative and complicated than explaining the nation’s demographic developments. The reply to that query wants some context and clarification about South Korean {couples} having kids.
It is very important acknowledge world demographic developments. Fertility charges beneath the substitute stage have gotten the worldwide norm. In over half of all of the international locations on this planet, representing over two-thirds of the world’s inhabitants, the fertility fee is beneath 2.1 births per lady.
Amongst these many international locations are some fifty populations, together with South Korea, which have a fertility fee properly beneath the substitute stage. These international locations, which embody China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, Spain and Sweden, have a fertility fee beneath 1.5 births per lady (Determine 3).
Due to low fertility charges, international locations are having fewer births than deaths, and that distinction yields unfavorable charges of inhabitants development. And due to sustained ranges of that unfavorable inhabitants development, international locations are dealing with inhabitants decline and demographic ageing.
Varied important components are believed to be behind the exceptionally low fertility fee in South Korea. Amongst these components are larger schooling, a declining marriage fee, excessive charges of contraceptive use, life-style selections, difficulties discovering an acceptable mate, private targets and severe considerations in regards to the future.
Additionally, extra components throughout South Korean society which can be contributing to the nation’s low fertility fee embody a piece tradition with an exceptionally prolonged workweek, lengthy work hours, and stiff profession competitors, the excessive prices of dwelling, particularly for housing, schooling, and childcare, difficulties juggling parenthood with employment, gender inequality within the office, notably the gender pay hole, and the normal gender roles and inequalities in household and family issues.
Though South Korea’s fertility fee could improve barely within the coming many years, it’s anticipated to stay considerably beneath the substitute stage of two.1 births per lady, leading to a seamless development of fewer births than deaths all through the twenty first century.
Many international locations, together with South Korea, are involved in regards to the decline and ageing of their respective populations. The governments of these international locations try to extend their low fertility charges with pro-natalist insurance policies, incentives, and packages.
A last query considerations whether or not these pronatalist insurance policies, incentives, and packages of governments will increase at this time’s low fertility charges again to the substitute stage.
Such insurance policies and packages could improve low fertility charges barely. Nonetheless, these will increase are sometimes short-term and comparatively small, with fertility charges remaining considerably beneath the substitute stage.
Primarily based on the experiences of nations over the previous a number of many years, as soon as a fertility fee falls beneath the substitute stage, particularly to 1.5 births per lady or much less, the speed stays at low ranges. Most inhabitants projections for international locations with low fertility charges don’t anticipate a return to the substitute stage quickly.
In conclusion, most international locations with low fertility charges, together with South Korea, which at present has the world’s lowest fertility fee, are anticipated to expertise inhabitants decline and demographic ageing all through the remaining many years of the twenty first century.
Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Inhabitants Division, and writer of many publications on inhabitants points, together with his current ebook, “Inhabitants Ranges, Tendencies, and Differentials”.
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